Robinhood reported that its third-quarter crypto revenue fell 55% year on year to $120 million, as crypto trading volume dropped 38% to $50 billion. In contrast, revenue from event contracts, meaning bets on outcomes such as elections or sports, reached $173 million, more than six times higher, with 16.4 billion contracts traded. Total transaction-based revenue rose 19% to $867 million. Profit came in below analysts' estimates.
What it means: The change in Robinhood's revenue mix shows how quickly US retail interest moves. With crypto prices below last year's levels, trading fell, but the gap was filled by prediction markets, a product that looks more like betting than investing. A company depending on activities that follow market mood makes its revenue unstable. Prediction markets are also at the centre of a legal fight in the US, with states such as Utah calling them illegal gambling and the federal regulator, the CFTC, defending its own jurisdiction. In the EU and Greece, such products are generally treated under gambling or financial instruments law and are not freely offered to retail customers, while Robinhood operates in the EU with limited services only. For Greek users of investment apps, it is a reminder that platforms that present themselves as investment tools increasingly promote high-risk products, and that it is worth checking which authority supervises each product before using it.
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