In the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the fourth quarter of 2026, inflation expectations stood at 3.0% for 2026, 2.6% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028, up 0.3 and 0.4 points for the first two years. The rise is attributed mainly to higher energy prices and their indirect effects, while longer-term expectations stay at 2.0%. Growth expectations were raised to 1.0% for 2026 and 1.3% for 2027 and 2028, with unemployment at 6.4% for 2026. Wage growth expectations are 3.3% for 2026 and 3.1% for 2027.

What it means: The survey shows forecasters now see the energy shock affecting inflation more strongly and for longer than they thought three months ago, with the largest additional effect expected in 2027. At the same time, they think second-round effects on wages and service prices will stay limited and that inflation will return to target in the long run. For Greek businesses, this means energy, transport and raw material costs will probably remain high next year too, something to build into budgets and contract pricing. Expected wage growth of around 3% in the euro area gives a reference point for pay discussions, although the Greek labour market has its own pressures, especially in tourism and construction. Higher inflation expectations make an ECB rate cut less likely in the near term, so the cost of loans linked to Euribor is not expected to fall soon. Businesses with floating-rate loans can discuss fixing or hedging options with their bank.

Notice: For information only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.

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