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Markets, central banks and economic data (Fed, ECB, Bank of Greece, ESMA, Euronext Athens, Eurostat, ELSTAT), with our own summary, what it means for Greek businesses and a link to the source. RSS
Notice: For information only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.
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Markets
Euro area government debt rises to 87.7% of GDP as deficit holds at 3%, Eurostat says
Eurostat announced on 21 October that the euro area government deficit stayed at 3.0% of GDP in 2025, as in 2024, while in the EU it stood at 3.1%. Euro area government debt rose to 87.7% of GDP from 86.6%. Five countries posted surpluses, led by Cyprus at 3.6% with Greece at 2.0%, while the largest deficits were in Romania, Poland, Belgium and France. Greece remains the country with the highest debt, at 145.4% of GDP, followed by Italy at 136.7%.
What it means: Greece's position in the Eurostat data has two sides. On one hand, its overall surplus places it among the most fiscally disciplined EU countries, which supports its credit rating and the state's borrowing costs. On the other, debt remains the highest in Europe as a share of GDP, though it is falling steadily. For businesses, the fiscal picture affects financing costs indirectly, since Greek government bond yields act as a base for pricing loans. The surplus also gives the government room for measures such as tax cuts or support schemes without breaching EU fiscal rules. By contrast, high deficits in large economies such as France and Poland mean many of Greece's trading partners will need fiscal adjustment, which could weigh on demand for Greek exports and tourism. Eleven member states were at or above the 3% threshold, which will occupy the Commission under the excessive deficit procedures. Eurostat expressed a reservation on the data for Bulgaria, which joined the euro area this year.
Notice: For information only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.
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Markets
Travel receipts up 9.4% in January–August, Bank of Greece data show
According to Bank of Greece data, travel receipts in August 2026 rose 6.5% year on year to 4,867.3 million euros, while payments for travel abroad rose 51.6%. Inbound traveller arrivals increased 13.4%, but average spending per trip fell 6.5%. From January to August receipts reached 18,197.5 million euros, up 9.4%, with arrivals up 10%. In August receipts from Germany rose 24.2% and from the US 52.3%, while receipts from the UK fell 32.8%.
What it means: The data point to a season with more visitors but lower spending per trip, which for tourism businesses means revenue growth relies more on volume than on value. That has cost implications: more visitors need more staff, energy and infrastructure, while revenue per customer does not rise. The sharp drop in receipts from the UK, alongside gains from Germany, Italy and the US, shows a shift in the market mix that affects areas with a traditionally British clientele. The strong increase in payments for travel abroad also reflects Greeks' greater willingness to travel, though from a low base. For restaurants, retail and transport businesses in tourist areas, the figures are useful for planning next season, for example on hiring, the markets targeted by promotion and pricing. For payment providers, more visitors from the US means more transactions with non-EU cards, where fees are higher. The Bank of Greece's next travel balance release is expected on 23 November. Spending per trip is worth watching closely, as it shows whether the extra arrivals translate into higher margins.
Notice: For information only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.
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Markets
Bank of Greece Financial Stability Review: €2.6bn bank profits and CET1 ratio at 14.8%
The Bank of Greece published its Financial Stability Review on 22 October, naming geopolitical tensions, energy prices, a sharp repricing of assets and developments in frontier artificial intelligence as the main risks. Greek banks' after-tax profits in the first half of 2026 reached 2.6 billion euros, up 3.8%, with core income rising 8.3%. The CET1 common equity ratio eased to 14.8% from 15.4% in December 2025 and the total capital ratio to 19.6%. The non-performing loan ratio stood at 3.4%, from 3.3%.
What it means: The review confirms that the Greek banking system remains profitable and well capitalised, while the small fall in capital ratios is linked mainly to loan growth and distributions to shareholders. For Greek businesses the most useful part is the picture of credit expansion: banks with strong profits and capital above supervisory requirements have room to keep lending, especially for investment projects linked to the Recovery Fund. The slight rise in the non-performing loan ratio shows that the clean-up phase is over and that portfolio quality will now depend on the economy and on borrowing costs. The reference to energy prices is a reminder that energy-intensive businesses remain exposed to new increases, which also affects their credit assessment. The section on artificial intelligence is also of interest: the Bank of Greece is looking both at the risks of its use in finance and at supervision under the AI Act, which means banks and fintechs will be asked to document how they use models in credit decisions. The review also discusses the Commission's July communication on banking sector competitiveness.
Notice: For information only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.
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Markets
Eurostat: EU fuel prices up 31.4% year on year in September
According to Eurostat, the price of fuels and lubricants for personal vehicles in the EU was 31.4% higher in September 2026 than in September 2025. The annual increase had been 16.9% in July and 23.8% in August, and in September it accelerated in 26 member states. The largest increases were in Bulgaria, Estonia and Lithuania, at over 40%, and the smallest in Hungary at 6.9%. On a monthly basis, diesel rose 5.9% and petrol 6.7% compared with August.
What it means: Energy is the main driver of the rise in euro area inflation, which reached 3.8% in September, and the Eurostat figures show how quickly higher oil prices reach the pump. For Greek businesses, fuel costs directly affect transport, distribution, ferries, agriculture and tourism, and indirectly almost every product through delivery costs. Companies with vehicle fleets or fixed-price contracts see their margins squeezed, while those with fuel adjustment clauses can pass on part of the cost. The increase also feeds headline inflation, which affects wage negotiations and consumers' purchasing power. Higher inflation is also one of the factors the ECB weighs in its interest rate decisions, which set the cost of business loans. Practical steps for businesses include checking contracts for fuel clauses, optimising routes and using tools such as myDiesel for eligible farmers. Figures for Greece are not listed separately in the release, but they are available in the Eurostat database.
Notice: For information only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.
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Markets
ELSTAT: Greece posts a 2.0% of GDP surplus in 2025 and debt at 145.4%
ELSTAT published on 21 October the 2022-2025 fiscal data from the second Excessive Deficit Procedure notification, submitted to Eurostat. General government recorded a 2025 surplus of 4.935 billion euros, or 2.0% of GDP, compared with 1.4% in 2024. Consolidated debt fell to 362.995 billion euros, or 145.4% of GDP, from 153.5% a year earlier. The primary surplus reached 5.1% of GDP, while Eurostat reported a euro area deficit of 3.0% and debt of 87.7% of GDP for 2025.
What it means: The data confirm that Greece continues to post some of the best fiscal results in the euro area, unlike the area average, which remains in deficit. The eight-point fall in debt as a share of GDP in one year reflects both the surpluses and growth in nominal GDP, which is also affected by inflation. For businesses, the fiscal picture has practical consequences. First, it feeds into the country's assessment by credit rating agencies, which in turn affects borrowing costs for the state and, indirectly, for banks and companies that issue bonds. Second, fiscal space determines how many support measures and tax cuts can be applied without breaching EU expenditure rules, such as those in the Thessaloniki fair bill. Third, the high revenue partly reflects better tax collection through digital tools, such as linking cash registers to POS terminals, myDATA and electronic invoicing, which expands in November. Interest spending eased slightly to 7.842 billion euros, which leaves more resources for investment.
Notice: For information only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.
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Markets
Bank of Greece: 1.7 billion euro current account surplus in August
The Bank of Greece announced on 21 October that the current account surplus widened by 533 million euros in August 2026 to reach 1.7 billion. The improvement came mainly from primary income and secondarily from services, while the goods deficit and secondary income worsened. Over January to August, the current account deficit rose by about 2.4 billion to 8.9 billion euros, mainly because of secondary income. Goods exports rose 17.3% and imports 9.3% at current prices, and excluding fuel the increases were 9.6% and 4.1%.
What it means: The current account shows whether the country earns more from abroad than it pays, through trade, tourism, interest and transfers. August is traditionally a strong month because of tourism, but the eight-month picture remains in deficit, which means the economy needs financing from abroad, about 8.5 billion euros once the capital account is added. For businesses, the positive element is export growth, which outpaces imports even without fuel, so it is not driven only by energy prices. The large gap between current and constant prices, however, shows that part of the rise comes from higher prices rather than larger volumes. The deterioration in secondary income usually relates to transfers, such as EU inflows and remittances, and is worth watching in the coming months. For exporters and tourism businesses, the figures show foreign demand is holding up, while for firms that depend on imported raw materials, import costs remain a key factor. The figures are provisional and may be revised.
Notice: For information only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell.
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